Last Decade of Dengue – and the Next One

Shafique Ahmed, Tayyaba Ijaz, Muti-ur-Rehman Khan, Saima Masood, Saadia Ijaz, Muhammad Younus, Zahid Pervaiz, Tahir Yaqub



Background: Before 1970, only 9 countries had dengue. Until 1998, there were 1.2 billion dengue infected cases in 56 different countries around the globe. To date it is prevalent in all of 6 WHO regions. Mortality rate is thought to be 2.5% as it varies from country to country. These figures are not surely depicting exact situation as many cases from most parts of the underdeveloped and developing countries go unreported due to number of reasons but one thing is sure that it is on accelerating note.

Methodology: In this study, total number of dengue victims around the globe from year 2000-2009 was estimated. Data were collected from World Health Organization (WHO), different health and country specific emergency dealing agenciesand hospitals. We have shown dengue statistics in annotated maps of international regions where dengue has affected in certain.  In a country specific (Pakistan) study we have determined most vulnerable population group among society, their age, gender and immunological profile against dengue virus. Moreover, most prevalent serotype of dengue virus is determined by surveying the current data.

Results: It is estimated that there were 24,956 lives lost world wide during 2000-2009 as a consequence of dengue infection (DF/DHF/DSS) with an average CFR of 0.24%. These figures are approximate as we have not included the unauthentic source figures from non-reporting (to WHO) countries or not having an official database. A total of 10,178,624 clinical cases had been reported during that period with highest share of Americas of 6,586,785 cases.

Conclusion: Our estimate suggests that number of dengue cases got elevated in first decade of 21st century but death rate is not that higher as 2-2.5% which is estimated. Dengue is spreading and finding novel places as temperature and travelling is getting increased.

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